The Reds' Trade Deadline Blueprint Pt. 1

A Reds' trade deadline breakdown

The Cincinnati Reds are an enigma in my mind. I have been on this earth for 21 years, and only seen 4 playoff berths for my favorite baseball team. A storied franchise that once had the most dominant team since the infamous “Murderer’s Row” of the 1920s. Now, the Reds have seemingly been presented with, or carved out, an opportunity to play October baseball again. Led by Elly De La Cruz and one of the best rotations in the sport, the future once again looks bright in Cincinnati. Therefore, the task I have given myself today is to breakdown the Reds’ current roster and see what moves they should look to make before the trade deadline and what they need to consider beyond it.

Catcher

Tyler Stephenson has had an interesting season since returning from an early season IL stint at the start of May. He has had trouble making consistent contact, posting career worsts in AVG (.237), xAVG (.218), and, most troublingly of all, K% (35%). That K% puts him in the bottom 1% of all qualified batters in the league, a worrisome stat to keep an eye on. However, Stephenson’s contact, when he makes it, has been quality. A career-high average exit velocity of 91.2 MPH headlines some uplifting raw numbers. His barrel% and hard-hit% are both well above-average, and his launch angle sweet spot% is in the 99th percentile. I’d chalk Stephenson’s struggles this season to nothing more but an inconsistent approach, and would expect him to bounce back throughout the rest of the season. I was firmly in the extension camp this past winter, and I believe the Reds do get a deal done with Stephenson to keep him in Cincinnati long-term.

I would be remiss not to at least mention Jose Trevino here as well as he has been a great veteran presence for this team, meaning the Reds probably have their catcher duo locked up for the next couple seasons, especially since Alfredo Duno is coming through the pipeline as a future top prospect (.844 OPS in Daytona!).

1st Base

CES has been abysmal for the past two seasons, and while I know injuries have played their part in his struggles, he simply does no part of the job at a major league level currently. I hope he turns it around (he has been hitting very well in Louisville this week), but until then he remains on the outside looking in.

Spencer Steer hasn’t been much better. He has been a shell of his former self, much like CES, this season. He’s been whiffing more, making weak contact, and simply has not been the kind of bat this team needs at 1st. Steer is a utility man on a good team at best, and should not play every day for this ball club if they want to seriously pursue the post-season.

This is the first position that is a must buy at this deadline. Yandy Diaz is the dream player, I mean seriously go look at his Baseball-Savant page he’s a monster, but the Reds may be unwilling to give up that much prospect capital for a 33 year old who mostly plays DH. Ryan O’Hearn is the other name that has been bouncing around. While O’Hearn has been struggling at the plate the past month, this move would still be a slam dunk for the Reds. Grabbing a reliable bat at first could be the difference this team needs. Better yet, he’s a fielder at the same level of Steer at first, meaning he is literally an upgrade, or equal to Steer in every facet of the game. The price for O’Hearn would probably look like two top 15 Reds’ prospect and an inning eater for the major league club. I would think Serwinowski, Holman, and Phillips get it done as the Orioles try and re-work their pitching staff.

2nd/SS

While I think that the Reds looking into a name like Willi Castro could really help the club, Tito seems hell-bent on seeing McLain play 150 games, and he is turning it around lately so I’ll trust the HOF manager. SS shouldn’t even need to be discussed as Elly needs to get every AB possible if this team wants to compete.

3rd Base

Noelvi Marte has been one of the big winners of the Reds’ season so far. A great bounceback from a terrible campaign last season. His advanced analytics aren’t to die for, but he has been consistent and that is what the Reds need. However, Noelvi looks primed for a move to the outfield in the not so near future, which makes me think that the Reds will look to add at 3rd base, at least I hope they do.

With Ryan McMahon off the board to the Yankees and news breaking about the Tigers aggressively pursuing Eugenio Suarez, 3rd base is looking shaky as far as options available. I would love for the Reds to go get Suarez and ride off into the sunset, but I doubt the two sides could come to terms. Nolan Arenado is another big name that could be moved, but I also doubt the Cardinals looking to move him in-division. Sadly, the best name I could think of is Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a glove first utility man who has been productive for the Pirates this season. It wouldn’t be a sexy move, but it would offer stability at 3rd. I could see a platoon of IKF and Espinal working very well as IKF has hit very well against RHP this season.

Outfield

I would assume only 1 infielder is added during the deadline, probably at third. Due to this, the Reds will continue running out Steer or whoever else at first, eating meaningful ABs for the sake of trusting the process and rewarding guys. Due to this, I believe the Reds will add an outfield piece to help strengthen the bench. Cedric Mullins is interesting, but is also a terrible bat this year. Luis Robert Jr. sounds like he might as well buy a condo in New York already as the Mets pursue him at breakneck speed. Therefore, my outfield addition would be Taylor Ward. It isn’t sexy, but Ward would be perfect for this team. A corner outfielder with immense pop, Ward will give the Reds some much needed consistency along with Friedl and Hays in the outfield.

So to do a final rundown, the Reds final roster (position players) would go as follows:

Catchers:

Tyler Stephenson

Jose Trevino

1st Base:

Ryan O’Hearn

Spencer Steer

2nd Base:

Matt McLain

Shortstop:

Elly De La Cruz

3rd Base:

IKF

Santiago Espinal

OF:

Austin Hays

Gavin Lux

TJ Friedl

Will Benson

Taylor Ward

Now I must admit, this team doesn’t feel like a pennant winner, but it fills me with hope that they could really push for the final wild card spot, and that hope is enough for me.

Thank you for reading my first ever article, I may do a follow-up about what moves should be made in the bullpen, but I’m expecting those moves to be made momentarily. If you have any recommendations for me, please feel more than welcomed to let me know. Thanks!